Simplefunctions
24/7 autonomous monitoring and edge detection for prediction markets (Kalshi & Polymarket). Features causal tree analysis, orderbook depth tracking, cross-venue comparison, and real-time alerts. Not one-time predictions — continuous autonomous monitoring with context management.
Overview
SimpleFunctions CLI (sf)
Prediction market intelligence CLI. Build causal thesis models, scan Kalshi/Polymarket for mispricings, detect edges, and trade — all from the terminal.
Quick Start
npm install -g @spfunctions/cli
sf setup # interactive config wizard
sf list # see your theses
sf context <id> --json # get thesis state as JSON
Setup
Interactive (recommended)
sf setup
This walks you through:
- SF API key (required) — get one at simplefunctions.dev
- Kalshi credentials (optional) — for positions, trading, and orderbook data
- Trading mode (optional) — enable
sf buy/sf sellcommands
Config is saved to ~/.sf/config.json. Environment variables override config values.
Manual
export SF_API_KEY=sf_live_xxx # required
export KALSHI_API_KEY_ID=xxx # optional, for positions/trading
export KALSHI_PRIVATE_KEY_PATH=~/.ssh/kalshi.pem # optional, for positions/trading
Verify
sf setup --check # show current config status
sf list # should show your theses
Commands
Thesis Management
| Command | Description |
|---|---|
sf list | List all theses with status, confidence, and update time |
sf get <id> | Full thesis details: causal tree, edges, positions, last evaluation |
sf context <id> | Compact context snapshot (primary command for agents) |
sf create "thesis" | Create a new thesis (waits for formation by default) |
sf signal <id> "text" | Inject a signal (news, observation) for next evaluation |
sf evaluate <id> | Trigger deep evaluation with heavy model |
sf publish <id> | Make thesis publicly viewable |
sf unpublish <id> | Remove from public view |
Market Exploration (no auth required)
| Command | Description |
|---|---|
sf scan "keywords" | Search Kalshi markets by keyword |
sf scan --series KXWTIMAX | List all markets in a series |
sf scan --market TICKER | Get single market detail |
sf explore | Browse public theses |
Portfolio & Trading (requires Kalshi credentials)
| Command | Description |
|---|---|
sf edges | Top edges across all theses — what to trade now |
sf positions | Current positions with P&L and edge overlay |
sf balance | Account balance |
sf orders | Resting (open) orders |
sf fills | Recent trade fills |
sf performance | P&L over time with thesis event annotations |
sf settlements | Settled contracts with final P&L |
sf liquidity | Market liquidity scanner by topic |
Trading (requires sf setup --enable-trading)
| Command | Description |
|---|---|
sf buy <ticker> <qty> | Buy contracts |
sf sell <ticker> <qty> | Sell contracts |
sf cancel [orderId] | Cancel order(s) |
sf rfq <ticker> <qty> | Request for quote on large orders |
Analysis
| Command | Description |
|---|---|
sf whatif <id> | What-if scenario: "if node X drops to 10%..." |
sf feed | Evaluation history stream |
sf forecast <event> | Market distribution forecast (P50/P75/P90) |
sf dashboard | Interactive TUI portfolio overview |
Interactive Modes
| Command | Description |
|---|---|
sf agent [id] | Interactive agent with natural language + tool calling |
sf telegram | Telegram bot for monitoring and trading |
JSON Output
Most commands support --json for machine-readable output:
sf list --json
sf context f582bf76 --json
sf edges --json
sf scan "oil" --json
sf get f582bf76 --json
For AI Agents
If you are an AI coding agent (Claude, GPT, OpenClaw, Cursor, etc.), follow these steps:
Step 1: Install and configure
npm install -g @spfunctions/cli
sf setup --key sf_live_YOUR_KEY_HERE
If sf setup is not available or you cannot run interactive commands:
export SF_API_KEY=sf_live_YOUR_KEY_HERE
Step 2: Verify it works
sf list
Expected output (table format):
ID Status Conf Updated Title
f582bf76 active 82% Mar 12 11:13 Oil prices will exceed $100...
a1b2c3d4 active 65% Mar 11 09:30 Fed will cut rates by June...
If you see theses, the CLI is working. If you see an error, check that SF_API_KEY is set correctly.
Step 3: Get thesis context (most important command)
sf context <thesisId> --json
This returns a JSON object with the complete thesis state:
{
"thesisId": "f582bf76-3113-4208-b0c1-...",
"thesis": "Oil prices will exceed $100 by end of 2026",
"title": "Oil Bull Thesis",
"status": "active",
"confidence": 0.82,
"causalTree": {
"rootClaim": "Oil prices will exceed $100",
"nodes": [
{
"id": "n1",
"label": "Supply disruption",
"probability": 0.75,
"importance": 0.6,
"depth": 0
}
]
},
"edges": [
{
"marketId": "KXWTIMAX-26DEC31-T100",
"market": "Will oil exceed $100 by Dec 2026?",
"venue": "kalshi",
"direction": "yes",
"marketPrice": 35,
"thesisPrice": 55,
"edge": 20,
"confidence": 0.8
}
],
"lastEvaluation": {
"summary": "Supply concerns rising due to...",
"newConfidence": 0.82,
"confidenceDelta": 0.03
}
}
Key fields:
confidence— overall thesis probability (0 to 1)edges[].edge— mispricing size in cents (positive = market underpriced vs thesis)edges[].marketPrice— current market price in cents (0-100)edges[].thesisPrice— what the thesis model thinks the price should belastEvaluation.summary— human-readable summary of latest analysis
Step 4: Other useful commands
# Inject a signal for the thesis to consider in its next evaluation
sf signal <thesisId> "Breaking: OPEC announces production cut" --type news
# View top edges (mispricings) across all theses
sf edges --json
# Search Kalshi markets by keyword
sf scan "recession" --json
# Trigger a deep re-evaluation
sf evaluate <thesisId>
# What-if analysis: what happens if a node probability changes?
sf whatif <thesisId>
Common patterns for agents
Monitor a thesis:
sf context <id> --json # poll periodically, check confidence changes
React to news:
sf signal <id> "Reuters: Iran nuclear deal collapses" --type news
sf evaluate <id> # trigger re-evaluation after injecting signal
sf context <id> --json # read updated state
Find trading opportunities:
sf edges --json # get top mispricings sorted by edge size
Error handling
- "API key required" — set
SF_API_KEYenv var or runsf setup --key <key> - "Thesis not found" — use
sf listto get valid thesis IDs. IDs can be short prefixes (first 8 chars) - "Kalshi not configured" — positions/trading commands need Kalshi credentials via
sf setup - Exit code 0 — success. Exit code 1 — error (message printed to stderr)
Local Development
cd cli
npm install
npm run dev -- list # run without building
npm run build # compile to dist/
npm run test # run unit tests
npm link # install as global 'sf' command
Server Config
{
"mcpServers": {
"simplefunctions": {
"url": "https://simplefunctions.dev/api/mcp/mcp"
}
}
}Project Info
Created At
2 months agoUpdated At
2 months agoAuthor Name
spfunctionsStar
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